How much of the economy runs on borrowing?

There is no single number for "how much of GDP is built on debt": a house bought with a mortgage counts in GDP just like one bought with cash, and no-one can see what would have happened without the loan. But five measures, published by the Bank for International Settlements for 27 economies, show how heavily each one leans on credit, how fast it is borrowing, and whether that is becoming dangerous.

Debt stockWhat households, companies and government owe, as a share of a year's output.
New borrowingHow much extra debt was taken on in the last year: spending paid for with credit.
Credit impulseIs that borrowing speeding up or slowing down? A sudden fall drags on growth.
Debt serviceThe share of income that goes on interest and repayments.
Credit gapHow far private debt has run ahead of its long-term trend: a banking-crisis warning light.

Who owes what

Debt of households, companies and government as a share of GDP, start of 2026. Click a country for its full picture.

HouseholdsCompaniesGovernment

Government debt at face value (South Korea: market value), so totals can differ slightly from the BIS headline, which uses market value.

The warning lights

Every country side by side. The credit gap uses the thresholds banking regulators use for the countercyclical capital buffer: above 2 points is a sign to start building defences, above 10 points is a strong warning. Click a column to sort.

What the numbers say

    How to read it

    • A high stock isn't the danger on its own. Japan owes the most, at about 3.5 times GDP, yet its households spend only 7.5% of income servicing debt because rates have been so low.
    • Speed matters more than size. Credit-fuelled booms reverse when the borrowing slows, even without defaults. That's why the credit impulse and credit gap are watched closely.
    • Debt service is the squeeze. When rates rise, it climbs and spending falls, even if no new debt is taken on.
    • Government borrowing isn't fake output. A deficit still pays real wages and buys real goods; the question is whether the debt can be serviced as rates change.
    • Who lends matters too. Debt owed in a currency the country can't print, or to foreigners who might stop lending, is far riskier. See the debt interest map.

    How the sums are done

    • Debt stock, debt service and credit gap are BIS figures, latest quarter (2026 Q1). Debt is end-quarter credit divided by the last four quarters of GDP. "Credit" covers loans and debt securities from all lenders: banks, other financial firms and foreigners.
    • New borrowing is worked out here: the rise in private and government debt over the four quarters to 2026 Q1, divided by four-quarter GDP (implied by BIS ratios). It includes currency and valuation effects, so treat it as a guide.
    • Credit impulse is the change in that new borrowing from the previous four quarters. Positive means borrowing is speeding up and adding to demand; negative means it is slowing.
    • Debt service ratio: interest plus repayments as a share of income (households: disposable income; companies: operating surplus).
    • Credit gap: private debt-to-GDP minus its long-run trend (a one-sided Hodrick–Prescott filter). Large positive gaps have preceded most banking crises; the gap is negative in most rich countries after years of deleveraging.

    Sources

    An illustration built from BIS statistics, not a forecast or investment advice. Some series have breaks or revisions (noted for South Korea, India, China, Brazil and Sweden).